In part 6, we compare all current NBA coaches on two crucial factors: experience and regular season success. In part 7, which will be in the next game report, the one for the Hornets game, we will compare all current NBA coaches in playoff experience and in playoff success.
HOW KARL’S COACHING EXPERIENCE AND REGULAR SEASON SUCCESS COMPARE WITH THOSE OF OTHER COACHES
TOTAL EXPERIENCE: TOTAL NUMBER OF GAMES COACHED BY NBA COACHES
The first number is the total number of games, the middle number is the number of regular season games, and the last number is the number of playoff games.
1 Golden State Don Nelson 2366 2200 166
2 Miami Pat Riley 2127 1845 282
3 Utah Jerry Sloan 1947 1772 175
4 LA Lakers Phil Jackson 1614 1358 256
5 Denver George Karl 1598 1457 141
6 Houston Rick Adelman 1418 1280 138
7 LA Clippers Mike Dunleavy 1231 1160 71
8 San Antonio Gregg Popovich 1040 897 143
9 Detroit Flip Saunders 1029 948 81
10 Boston Doc Rivers 651 629 22
11 Portland Nate McMillan 621 605 16
12 New Orleans Byron Scott 620 580 40
13 Philadelphia Maurice Cheeks 522 512 10
14 Washington Eddie Jordan 491 471 20
15 Seattle P.J. Carlesimo 464 452 12
16 Phoenix Mike D'Antoni 450 404 46
17 Indiana Jim O'Brien 419 388 31
18 New York Isiah Thomas 390 375 15
19 New Jersey Lawrence Frank 371 333 38
20 Toronto Sam Mitchell 298 292 6
21 Atlanta Mike Woodson 289 289 0
22 Dallas Avery Johnson 270 228 42
23 Orlando Stan Van Gundy 262 234 28
24 Minnesota Randy Wittman 252 252 0
25 Cleveland Mike Brown 243 210 33
26 Milwaukee Larry Krystkowiak 66 66 0
27 Charlotte Sam Vincent 48 48 0
28 Memphis Marc Iavaroni 47 47 0
29 Sacramento Reggie Theus 46 46 0
30 Chicago Jim Boylan 20 20 0
In every employment, in every business, in every pursuit of any kind, experience is supposed to produce efficiency and effectiveness in performance. Basketball coaching is no exception. NBA coaching is not a simple thing, and coaches with more experience have a substantial advantage over coaches with less. Therefore, you should tend to see that the coaches with the most experience will also tend to have the best win-loss records. This is exactly what you do see.
Coaches who have been repeatedly stuck early in their careers with bad teams that can not be improved enough to become winners will inevitably get fired after a few years, at the most, and they will never reach what you might call the “permanent head coaching career level,” which I would say is at about 500 games or so.
In a class of their own as the most experienced NBA coaches are Don Nelson-Warriors and Pat Riley-Heat. The third most experienced NBA coach is Jerry Sloan-Jazz. Phil Jackson-Lakers and George Karl-Nuggets are virtually tied for fourth. There are really only 3 coaches in the NBA who have coached substantially more games than Karl has: Nelson, Riley, and Sloan.
Rick Adelman, who is out to get one of the last two playoff berths in the West, is the 6th most experienced Coach. Don Nelson of the Warriors is also gunning for one of the last two seeds. Should both of them succeed, it would probably mean devastation for the Denver franchise, since the Nuggets most likely will not even make the playoffs if that scenario plays out.
The only other coaches who have coached more than 1,000 games are Mike Dunleavy-Clippers, Greg Popovich-Spurs, and Flip Saunders-Pistons. Following the 9 coaches who have the huge experience of more than 1,000 games coached, there is a huge drop-off. The 10th most experienced coach is Doc Rivers-Celtics, with 651 games. Should there be a Lakers-Celtics Championship this year, which seems to become more likely with each passing week, the Celtics’ Coach will be less than half as experienced as the Lakers’ Coach, which will give the Lakers a key advantage, especially if the teams are otherwise about equal.
The other coaches who are much less experienced than the top 9, but who have reached the permanent head coaching career level of 500 games, where they have some protection from being fired if they can not turn a bad team into a winner, would be Nate McMillan-Trailblazers, Byron Scott-Hornets, Maurice Cheeks-76’ers, and, soon to be qualified, Eddie Jordan-Wizards.
CURRENT NBA COACHES RANKED BY CAREER REGULAR SEASON RECORDS AS OF FEBRUARY 4, 2008
The first number is the regular season winning percentage, the middle number is the number of regular season wins, and the last number is the number of regular season losses.
1 Dallas Avery Johnson 0.763 174 54
2 LA Lakers Phil Jackson 0.699 949 409
3 San Antonio Gregg Popovich 0.674 605 292
4 Miami Pat Riley 0.646 1191 654
5 Orlando Stan Van Gundy 0.611 143 91
6 Houston Rick Adelman 0.609 779 501
7 Phoenix Mike D'Antoni 0.606 245 159
8 Utah Jerry Sloan 0.601 1065 707
9 Cleveland Mike Brown 0.600 126 84
10 Detroit Flip Saunders 0.593 562 386
11 Denver George Karl 0.588 857 600
12 Golden State Don Nelson 0.573 1261 939
13 New Jersey Lawrence Frank 0.532 177 156
14 Indiana Jim O'Brien 0.518 201 187
15 Philadelphia Maurice Cheeks 0.494 253 259
16 Boston Doc Rivers 0.491 309 320
17 LA Clippers Mike Dunleavy 0.486 564 596
18 Portland Nate McMillan 0.483 292 313
19 Sacramento Reggie Theus 0.478 22 24
20 New Orleans Byron Scott 0.476 276 304
21 New York Isiah Thomas 0.475 178 197
22 Toronto Sam Mitchell 0.452 132 160
23 Chicago Jim Boylan 0.450 9 11
24 Washington Eddie Jordan 0.446 210 261
25 Seattle P.J. Carlesimo 0.431 195 257
26 Charlotte Sam Vincent 0.375 18 30
27 Milwaukee Larry Krystkowiak 0.348 23 43
28 Minnesota Randy Wittman 0.333 84 168
29 Atlanta Mike Woodson 0.304 88 201
30 Memphis Marc Iavaroni 0.277 13 34
Avery Johnson, who has coached a relatively small number of games, 270, is the most successful regular season coach in the NBA right now. But Phil Jackson, who has won about 7 of every 10 games he has coached, has a far more impressive record than Johnson, because Jackson has coached almost exactly 6 games for every 1 game coached by Johnson.
Trailing Jackson in both experience and success, by small margins, is Greg Popovich. Pat Riley has been an extremely successful coach as well; he’s 4th in success and 2nd in experience.
Among those who have not yet reached 500 games, Stan Van Gundy is most likely the coach who has the greatest probability of becoming a permanent, career head coach, because his success has been substantial. Just behind Van Gundy and with at least 6 0f 10 games won, is Rick Adelman-Rockets, Mike D’Antoni-Suns, Jerry Sloan-Jazz and Mike Brown-Cavaliers. Like Van Gundy, Brown is likely to become a permanent, career coach, unless general managers decide that LeBron James deserves all of the credit for the Cavaliers success and Brown deserves almost none.
In sum, there are 9 coaches who have achieved the 6 in 10 games won or better mark, which I would call the absolute minimum level needed to qualify to be further considered as to whether they might be an historically great coach. Then there is a group of 5 coaches who are over .500, but under the 6 in 10 games threshold. These would be Flip Saunders-Pistons, George Karl-Nuggets, Don Nelson-Warriors, Lawrence Frank-Nets, and Jim O’Brien-Pacers.
So it would appear that Karl is a good Coach, or at least used to be a good Coach, but he comes up a little short as to whether he might be a great Coach. Close counts only in horseshoes, right? Saunders, Karl, and Nelson are all highly experienced coaches who come up short as to whether they might be truly great coaches. Of the 9 most experienced coaches, there are 5 who qualify as very possibly historically great, Jackson, Popovich, Riley, Adelman, and Sloan. And there is one Coach who is less successful than the partially successful trio of Saunders, Karl, and Nelson: Mike Dunleavy-Clippers. Dunleavy is the only heavily experienced Coach who has a losing regular season record.
The bottom line is that George Karl is one of 9 heavily experienced NBA coaches, but he is not one of the 5 heavily experienced NBA coaches who have achieved a regular season record of 6 out of 10 games won or better. Karl is 18 wins short from that mark and the odd thing is, I am certain he would have those 18 and probably more just from his Nuggets job, if he were truly a great coach. Because the Nuggets are not winning as many games as they should be this year, and nor did they last year.
The Nuggets are exactly the kind of team that a great coach can take to a 54 or 58-win season. Were the Nuggets coached by any of the top 5 NBA coaches, Jackson, Popovich Riley, Adelman, or Sloan, I am certain that they would win 54-60 games this season. Under Karl, they are projected to win 48 games and, astoundingly, have a substantial risk of missing the playoffs.
Exactly how well the Nuggets would do were they coached by Johnson, Van Gundy, D’Antoni, and Brown is more uncertain, since these four, while more successful than Karl in win percentage, are not heavily experienced coaches. However, as an educated estimate, I would say that Johnson, Van Gundy, or D’Antoni, were they coaching the Nuggets this year, would produce 50-54 wins, and would be able to insure that the Nuggets would make the playoffs without having to worry about it right up to and including the last week of the season. Brown would be a wildcard, and all bets would be off with him, because his success may be mostly due to LeBron James.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Friday, January 4, 2008
The George Karl Fiasco, Part 5
SUMMARY OF GEORGE KARL’S POSTSEASON RECORD
1984-85 CLE 1-3 Lost in the First Round
1985-86 CLE 0-0 Fired During the Regular Season
1986-87 GSW 4-6 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1987-88 GSW 0-0 Fired During the Regular Season
1988-89 Did Not Coach in the NBA
1989-90 Did Not Coach in the NBA except briefly as an Assistant Coach for the Jazz
1990-91 Did Not Coach in the NBA
1991-92 SEA 4–5 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1992-93 SEA 10-9 Lost in the Third Round (West Conference Finals)
1993-94 SEA 2-3 Lost in the First Round
1994-95 SEA 1-3 Lost in the First Round
1995-96 SEA 13-8 Lost in the Fourth Round (NBA Championship Series)
1996-97 SEA 6-6 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1997-98 SEA 4-6 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1998-99 MIL 0-3 Lost in the First Round
1999-00 MIL 2-3 Lost in the First Round
2000-01 MIL 10-8 Lost in the Third Round (East Conference Finals)
2001-02 MIL 0-0 Missed the Playoffs
2002-03 MIL 2-4 Lost in the First Round
2003-04 Did Not Coach in the NBA
2004-05 DEN 1-4 Lost in the First Round
2005-06 DEN 1-4 Lost in the First Round
2006-07 DEN 1-4 Lost in the First Round
Now let’s look at the results in detail. The team that Karl coached is in bold letters.
DETAILS OF GEORGE KARL’S POSTSEASON RECORD
1985
Boston 63-19 vs. Cleveland 36-46
Boston 3, Cleveland 1
Apr. 18: Thu., Cleveland 123 at Boston 126
Apr. 20: Sat., Cleveland 106 at Boston 108
Apr. 23: Tue., Boston 98 at Cleveland 105
Apr. 25: Thu., Boston 117 at Cleveland 115
1987
Utah 44-38 vs. Golden State 42-40
Golden State 3, Utah 2
Apr. 23: Thu., Golden State 85 at Utah 99
Apr. 25: Sat., Golden State 100 at Utah 103
Apr. 29: Wed., Utah 95 at Golden State 110
May 1: Fri., Utah 94 at Golden State 98
May 3: Sun., Golden State 118 at Utah 113
AND
Los Angeles Lakers 65-17 vs. Golden State 42-40
L.A. Lakers 4, Golden State 1
May 5: Tue., Golden State 116 at L.A. Lakers 125
May 7: Thu., Golden State 101 at L.A. Lakers 116
May 9: Sat., L.A. Lakers 133 at Golden State 108
May 10: Sun., L.A. Lakers 121 at Golden State 129
May 12: Tue., Golden State 106 at L.A. Lakers 118
1992
Golden State 55-27 vs. Seattle 47-35
Seattle 3, Golden State 1
Apr. 23: Thu., Seattle 117 at Golden State 109
Apr. 25: Sat., Seattle 101 at Golden State 115
Apr. 28: Tue., Golden State 128 at Seattle 129
Apr. 30: Thu., Golden State 116 at Seattle 119
AND
Utah 55-27 vs, Seattle 47-35
Utah 4, Seattle 1
May 6: Wed., Seattle 100 at Utah 108
May 8: Fri., Seattle 97 at Utah 103
May 10: Sun., Utah 98 at Seattle 104
May 12: Tue., Utah 89 at Seattle 83
May 14: Thu., Seattle 100 at Utah 111
1993
Seattle 55-27 vs. Utah 47-35
Seattle 3, Utah 2
Apr. 30: Fri., Utah 85 at Seattle 99
May 2: Sun., Utah 89 at Seattle 85
May 4: Tue., Seattle 80 at Utah 90
May 6: Thu., Seattle 93 at Utah 80
May 8: Sat., Utah 92 at Seattle 100
AND
Seattle 55-27 vs. Houston 55-27
Seattle 4, Houston 3
May 10: Mon., Houston 90 at Seattle 99
May 12: Wed., Houston 100 at Seattle 111
May 15: Sat., Seattle 79 at Houston 97
May 16: Sun., Seattle 92 at Houston 103
May 18: Tue., Houston 95 at Seattle 120
May 20: Thu., Seattle 90 at Houston 103
May 22: Sat., Houston 100 at Seattle 103
AND
Phoenix 62-20 vs. Seattle 55-27
Phoenix 4, Seattle 3
May 24: Mon., Seattle 91 at Phoenix 105
May 26: Wed., Seattle 103 at Phoenix 99
May 28: Fri., Phoenix 104 at Seattle 97
May 30: Sun., Phoenix 101 at Seattle 120
June 1: Tue., Seattle 114 at Phoenix 120
June 3: Thu., Phoenix 102 at Seattle 118
June 5: Sat., Seattle 110 at Phoenix 123
1994
Seattle 63-19 vs. Denver 42-40
Denver 3, Seattle 2
Apr. 28: Thu., Denver 82 at Seattle 106
Apr. 30: Sat., Denver 87 at Seattle 97
May 2: Mon., Seattle 93 at Denver 110
May 5: Thu., Seattle 85 at Denver 94
May 7: Sat., Denver 98 at Seattle 94
1995
Seattle 57-25 vs. Los Angeles Lakers 48-34
L.A. Lakers 3, Seattle 1
Apr. 27: Thu., L.A. Lakers 71 at Seattle 96
Apr. 29: Sat., L.A. Lakers 84 at Seattle 82
May 1: Mon., Seattle 101 at L.A. Lakers 105
May 4: Thu., Seattle 110 at L.A. Lakers 114
1996
Seattle 64-18 vs. Sacramento 39-43
Seattle 3, Sacramento 1
Apr. 26: Fri., Sacramento 85 at Seattle 97
Apr. 28: Sun., Sacramento 90 at Seattle 81
Apr. 30: Tue., Seattle 96 at Sacramento 89
May 2: Thu., Seattle 101 at Sacramento 87
AND
Seattle 64-19 vs. Houston 48-34
Seattle 4, Houston 0
May 4: Sat., Houston 75 at Seattle 108
May 6: Mon., Houston 101 at Seattle 105
May 10: Fri., Seattle 115 at Houston 112
May 12: Sun., Seattle 114 at Houston 107
AND
Seattle 64-18 vs. Utah 55-27
Seattle 4, Utah 3
May 18: Sat., Utah 72 at Seattle 102
May 20: Mon., Utah 87 at Seattle 91
May 24: Fri., Seattle 76 at Utah 96
May 26: Sun., Seattle 88 at Utah 86
May 28: Tue., Utah 98 at Seattle 95
May 30: Thu., Seattle 83 at Utah 118
June 2: Sun., Utah 86 at Seattle 90
AND
Chicago 72-10 vs. Seattle 64-18
Chicago 4, Seattle 2
June 5: Wed., Seattle 90 at Chicago 107
June 7: Fri., Seattle 88 at Chicago 92
June 9: Sun., Chicago 108 at Seattle 86
June 12: Wed., Chicago 86 at Seattle 107
June 14: Fri., Chicago 78 at Seattle 89
June 16: Sun., Seattle 75 at Chicago 87
1997
Seattle 57-25 vs. Phoenix 40-42
Seattle 3, Phoenix 2
Apr. 25: Fri., Phoenix 106 at Seattle 101
Apr. 27: Sun., Phoenix 78 at Seattle 122
Apr. 29: Tue., Seattle 103 at Phoenix 110
May 1: Thu., Seattle 122 at Phoenix 115
May 3: Sat., Phoenix 92 at Seattle 116
AND
Seattle 57-25 vs. Houston 57-25
Houston 4, Seattle 3
May 5: Mon., Seattle 102 at Houston 112
May 7: Wed., Seattle 106 at Houston 101
May 9: Fri., Houston 97 at Seattle 93
May 11: Sun., Houston 110 at Seattle 106
May 13: Tue., Seattle 100 at Houston 94
May 15: Thu., Houston 96 at Seattle 99
May 17: Sat., Seattle 91 at Houston 96
1998
Seattle 61-21 vs. Minnesota 45-37
Seattle 3, Minnesota 2
Apr. 24: Fri., Minnesota 83 at Seattle 108
Apr. 26: Sun., Minnesota 98 at Seattle 93
Apr. 28: Tue., Seattle 90 at Minnesota 98
Apr. 30: Thu., Seattle 92 at Minnesota 88
May 2: Sat., Minnesota 84 at Seattle 97
AND
Seattle 61-21 vs. Los Angeles Lakers 61-21
LA Lakers 4, Seattle 1
May 4: Mon., L.A. Lakers 92 at Seattle 106
May 6: Wed., L.A. Lakers 92 at Seattle 68
May 8: Fri., Seattle 103 at L.A. Lakers 119
May 10: Sun., Seattle 100 at L.A. Lakers 112
May 12: Tue., L.A. Lakers 110 at Seattle 95
1999
Indiana 33-17 vs. Milwaukee 28-22
Indiana 3, Milwaukee 0
May 9: Sun., at Indiana 110, Milwaukee 88
May 11: Tue., at Indiana 108, Milwaukee 107
May 13: Thu., Indiana 99, at Milwaukee 91
2000
Indiana 56-26 vs. Milwaukee 42-40
Indiana 3, Milwaukee 2
Apr. 23: Sun., Milwaukee 85 at Indiana 88
Apr. 27: Thu., Milwaukee 104 at Indiana 91
Apr. 29: Sat., Indiana 109 at Milwaukee 96
May 1: Mon., Indiana 87 at Milwaukee 100
May 4: Thu., Milwaukee 95 at Indiana 96
2001
Milwaukee 52-30 vs. Orlando 43-39
Milwaukee 3, Orlando 1
Apr. 22: Sun., Orlando 90 at Milwaukee 103
Apr. 25: Wed., Orlando 96 at Milwaukee 103
Apr. 28: Sat., Milwaukee 116 at Orlando 121
May 1: Tue., Milwaukee 112 at Orlando 104
AND
Milwaukee 52-30 vs. Charlotte 46-36
Milwaukee 4, Charlotte 3
May 6: Sun., Charlotte 92 at Milwaukee 104
May 8: Tue., Charlotte 90 at Milwaukee 91
May 10: Thu., Milwaukee 92 at Charlotte 102
May 13: Sun., Milwaukee 78 at Charlotte 85
May 15: Tue., Charlotte 94 at Milwaukee 86
May 17: Thu., Milwaukee 104 at Charlotte 97
May 20: Sun., Charlotte 95 at Milwaukee 104
AND
Philadelphia 56-26 vs. Milwaukee 52-30
Philadelphia 4, Milwaukee 3
May 22: Tue., Milwaukee 85 at Philadelphia 93
May 24: Thu., Milwaukee 92 at Philadelphia 78
May 26: Sat., Philadelphia 74 at Milwaukee 80
May 28: Mon., Philadelphia 89 at Milwaukee 83
May 30: Wed., Milwaukee 88 at Philadelphia 89
June 1: Fri., Philadelphia 100 at Milwaukee 110
June 3: Sun., Milwaukee 91 at Philadelphia 108
2003
New Jersey 49-33 vs. Milwaukee 42-40
New Jersey 4, Milwaukee 2
Apr. 19: Sat., Milwaukee 96 at New Jersey 109
Apr. 22: Tue., Milwaukee 88 at New Jersey 85
Apr. 24: Thur., New Jersey 103 at Milwaukee 101
Apr. 26: Sat., New Jersey 114 at Milwaukee 119
May 29: Tue., Milwaukee 82 at New Jersey 89
May 1: Thur., New Jersey 113 at Milwaukee 101
2005
San Antonio 59-23 vs. Denver 49-33
San Antonio 4 Denver 1
Game 1 April 24 San Antonio Spurs 87 Denver Nuggets 93
Game 2 April 27 San Antonio Spurs 104 Denver Nuggets 76
Game 3 April 30 Denver Nuggets 78 San Antonio Spurs 86
Game 4 May 2 Denver Nuggets 115 San Antonio Spurs 126
Game 5 May 4 San Antonio Spurs 99 Denver Nuggets 89
2006
Los Angeles Clippers 47-35 vs. Denver 44-38
Los Angeles Clippers 4 Denver 1
Game 1 April 22 Los Angeles Clippers 89 Denver Nuggets 87
Game 2 April 24 Los Angeles Clippers 98 Denver Nuggets 87
Game 3 April 27 Denver Nuggets 94 Los Angeles Clippers 87
Game 4 April 29 Denver Nuggets 86 Los Angeles Clippers 100
Game 5 May 1 Los Angeles Clippers 101 Denver Nuggets 83
2007
San Antonio 58-24 vs. Denver 45-37
San Antonio 4 Denver 1
Game 1 April 22 San Antonio Spurs 89 Denver Nuggets 95
Game 2 April 25 San Antonio Spurs 97 Denver Nuggets 88
Game 3 April 28 Denver Nuggets 91 San Antonio Spurs 96
Game 4 April 30 Denver Nuggets 89 San Antonio Spurs 96
Game 5 May 2 San Antonio Spurs 93 Denver Nuggets 78
Number of series where Karl’s team was favored and Karl’s team won: 8
Number of series where the other team was favored but Karl’s team won: 2
Number of series where Karl’s team was favored but the other team won: 2
Number of series where the other team was favored and the other team won: 12
Finally, let’s take a close look at the four upsets. In 1987, George Karl’s Warriors (42-40) scored a small upset playoff series win over the Utah Jazz (44-38) when they defeated the Jazz in Utah 118-113 in the 5th and deciding game of the series.
Then, in 1992, George Karl’s Supersonics (47-35) scored an upset playoff series win over the Golden State Warriors (55-27) 3 games to 1. Two of the 3 wins, though, were extremely close games, 1-point and 3-point wins.
In 1994, Karl’s most famous playoff failure occurred, in what is regarded by many as the biggest playoff upset/choke in the history of the NBA, though some would rank last year’s Warriors win over the Mavericks as just as or more historic. Karl’s Supersonics (63-19) were defeated by the Dikembe Mutombo and the Denver Nuggets (42-40) 3 games to 2, with the final game of the series being a thrilling and shocking overtime win for the Nuggets in Seattle. The Sonics were the 1st seed of the West, while the Nuggets were the 8th seed.
The next year, in 1995, there was another monumental Karl first round playoff failure, though it is much less famous than the one the prior year. In 1995, the Los Angeles Lakers (48-34) scored a major upset over Karl’s Supersonics (57-25) 3 games to 1. Although the win-loss gap between the two teams in the 1995 upset was less than in the 1994 upset, the Sonics managed to win only 1 game against the underdog Lakers.
In evaluating his record, we can analyze that Karl’s 1992 upset victory offsets his 1995 upset loss. His 1987 upset win, while coaching the Warriors, was just barely an upset, and worth very little weight in this review. So after these dispensations, you are left with that 1994 loss, which is, to repeat, one of the worst and probably the very worst playoff defeat in the history of the NBA. Even if Karl were to win a Championship, or one or two new upset playoff series wins, he would never be able to escape the “coach of the team with the worst playoff series loss in history” tag.
As we will see in Part 6, Karl has a poor win-loss postseason record compared with other current coaches. But this review shows that his poor record is due just as much to his having had a series of marginal teams in the playoffs, especially the Bucks and the Nuggets, as it is due to his actual failures in the playoffs, which could be reduced to that one whopper, losing to the 8th seed Nuggets as Coach of the 1st seed Sonics in 1994.
Overall, and ironically, Karl’s very poor reputation regarding postseason results among avid basketball fans is not entirely supported by the facts. The real truth is that, when you look carefully at Karl’s postseason record, you find that it is only slightly below par not counting the 1994 Nuggets-Sonics shocker. When that is included, his overall playoff record becomes modestly to moderately poor, depending on how much weight you want to put on the 1994 fiasco.
But moderately poor, modestly poor, or even average is just not good enough in professional sports. Whether you consider his record to be modestly poor or moderately poor, it is still not good enough if your objective is to break through to the highest level of the Western Conference, which is the highest level of pro basketball there is in the world. For that huge task, you need an above average in the postseason type of coach.
So although Karl’s postseason record is not as terrible as many including myself have imagined it to be, his record nonetheless reveals that he is almost certainly not the coach you want if you have difficult mountains to climb, but you are determined to climb them, and you have equipped yourself with one the most talented and expensive pro teams in the world with which to make the climb. Quite to the contrary, Karl would be your man if your objective was to tragically waste one of the most talented and expensive pro teams in the world, by not providing it with a Coach who would have all of the skills and abilities needed to perform at a high level in the postseason.
In part 6, you will see that there are a substantial number of coaches right now in the NBA who have shown above average ability in the postseason, so it is anything but impossible or extremely difficult to find and hire such a coach. It is difficult, and requires a huge amount of work, but the payoff for finding the right coach could be a Championship for a team like the Nuggets. Don’t dodge tough jobs if when they are completed a lot of other jobs become a lot easier.
The Nuggets thought they were playing it safe by hiring Karl, who had a good overall record and was already highly experienced at the time he was hired in January 2005. They thought his relatively low opinion of individual players as compared with the great game itself would be a counterweight to the volatile mix of stars they were bringing on to the team. Unfortunately, they overestimated the need for a counterweight to volatile personalities, and they also underestimated Karl’s tendency to penalize rather than teach. As Karl has gotten older, he has become more and more like a 19th century schoolteacher putting any youngster who acts up a little in the corner with a dunce cap. He has become more and more of a disciplinarian and less and less of a motivator and teacher.
The real truth is that the Nuggets’ organization was actually taking a big risk by hiring Karl, because they hired a Coach who has been mediocre at best in the postseason, which is obviously and certainly not appropriate if you have otherwise gone to great expense and great effort to fill out your roster with some extremely talented players, who are simply better than the vast majority of other players in the League. So it was not a safe or a wise choice at all. It was unwise, unsafe, and quite illogical in fact.
1984-85 CLE 1-3 Lost in the First Round
1985-86 CLE 0-0 Fired During the Regular Season
1986-87 GSW 4-6 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1987-88 GSW 0-0 Fired During the Regular Season
1988-89 Did Not Coach in the NBA
1989-90 Did Not Coach in the NBA except briefly as an Assistant Coach for the Jazz
1990-91 Did Not Coach in the NBA
1991-92 SEA 4–5 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1992-93 SEA 10-9 Lost in the Third Round (West Conference Finals)
1993-94 SEA 2-3 Lost in the First Round
1994-95 SEA 1-3 Lost in the First Round
1995-96 SEA 13-8 Lost in the Fourth Round (NBA Championship Series)
1996-97 SEA 6-6 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1997-98 SEA 4-6 Lost in the Second Round (West Semifinals)
1998-99 MIL 0-3 Lost in the First Round
1999-00 MIL 2-3 Lost in the First Round
2000-01 MIL 10-8 Lost in the Third Round (East Conference Finals)
2001-02 MIL 0-0 Missed the Playoffs
2002-03 MIL 2-4 Lost in the First Round
2003-04 Did Not Coach in the NBA
2004-05 DEN 1-4 Lost in the First Round
2005-06 DEN 1-4 Lost in the First Round
2006-07 DEN 1-4 Lost in the First Round
Now let’s look at the results in detail. The team that Karl coached is in bold letters.
DETAILS OF GEORGE KARL’S POSTSEASON RECORD
1985
Boston 63-19 vs. Cleveland 36-46
Boston 3, Cleveland 1
Apr. 18: Thu., Cleveland 123 at Boston 126
Apr. 20: Sat., Cleveland 106 at Boston 108
Apr. 23: Tue., Boston 98 at Cleveland 105
Apr. 25: Thu., Boston 117 at Cleveland 115
1987
Utah 44-38 vs. Golden State 42-40
Golden State 3, Utah 2
Apr. 23: Thu., Golden State 85 at Utah 99
Apr. 25: Sat., Golden State 100 at Utah 103
Apr. 29: Wed., Utah 95 at Golden State 110
May 1: Fri., Utah 94 at Golden State 98
May 3: Sun., Golden State 118 at Utah 113
AND
Los Angeles Lakers 65-17 vs. Golden State 42-40
L.A. Lakers 4, Golden State 1
May 5: Tue., Golden State 116 at L.A. Lakers 125
May 7: Thu., Golden State 101 at L.A. Lakers 116
May 9: Sat., L.A. Lakers 133 at Golden State 108
May 10: Sun., L.A. Lakers 121 at Golden State 129
May 12: Tue., Golden State 106 at L.A. Lakers 118
1992
Golden State 55-27 vs. Seattle 47-35
Seattle 3, Golden State 1
Apr. 23: Thu., Seattle 117 at Golden State 109
Apr. 25: Sat., Seattle 101 at Golden State 115
Apr. 28: Tue., Golden State 128 at Seattle 129
Apr. 30: Thu., Golden State 116 at Seattle 119
AND
Utah 55-27 vs, Seattle 47-35
Utah 4, Seattle 1
May 6: Wed., Seattle 100 at Utah 108
May 8: Fri., Seattle 97 at Utah 103
May 10: Sun., Utah 98 at Seattle 104
May 12: Tue., Utah 89 at Seattle 83
May 14: Thu., Seattle 100 at Utah 111
1993
Seattle 55-27 vs. Utah 47-35
Seattle 3, Utah 2
Apr. 30: Fri., Utah 85 at Seattle 99
May 2: Sun., Utah 89 at Seattle 85
May 4: Tue., Seattle 80 at Utah 90
May 6: Thu., Seattle 93 at Utah 80
May 8: Sat., Utah 92 at Seattle 100
AND
Seattle 55-27 vs. Houston 55-27
Seattle 4, Houston 3
May 10: Mon., Houston 90 at Seattle 99
May 12: Wed., Houston 100 at Seattle 111
May 15: Sat., Seattle 79 at Houston 97
May 16: Sun., Seattle 92 at Houston 103
May 18: Tue., Houston 95 at Seattle 120
May 20: Thu., Seattle 90 at Houston 103
May 22: Sat., Houston 100 at Seattle 103
AND
Phoenix 62-20 vs. Seattle 55-27
Phoenix 4, Seattle 3
May 24: Mon., Seattle 91 at Phoenix 105
May 26: Wed., Seattle 103 at Phoenix 99
May 28: Fri., Phoenix 104 at Seattle 97
May 30: Sun., Phoenix 101 at Seattle 120
June 1: Tue., Seattle 114 at Phoenix 120
June 3: Thu., Phoenix 102 at Seattle 118
June 5: Sat., Seattle 110 at Phoenix 123
1994
Seattle 63-19 vs. Denver 42-40
Denver 3, Seattle 2
Apr. 28: Thu., Denver 82 at Seattle 106
Apr. 30: Sat., Denver 87 at Seattle 97
May 2: Mon., Seattle 93 at Denver 110
May 5: Thu., Seattle 85 at Denver 94
May 7: Sat., Denver 98 at Seattle 94
1995
Seattle 57-25 vs. Los Angeles Lakers 48-34
L.A. Lakers 3, Seattle 1
Apr. 27: Thu., L.A. Lakers 71 at Seattle 96
Apr. 29: Sat., L.A. Lakers 84 at Seattle 82
May 1: Mon., Seattle 101 at L.A. Lakers 105
May 4: Thu., Seattle 110 at L.A. Lakers 114
1996
Seattle 64-18 vs. Sacramento 39-43
Seattle 3, Sacramento 1
Apr. 26: Fri., Sacramento 85 at Seattle 97
Apr. 28: Sun., Sacramento 90 at Seattle 81
Apr. 30: Tue., Seattle 96 at Sacramento 89
May 2: Thu., Seattle 101 at Sacramento 87
AND
Seattle 64-19 vs. Houston 48-34
Seattle 4, Houston 0
May 4: Sat., Houston 75 at Seattle 108
May 6: Mon., Houston 101 at Seattle 105
May 10: Fri., Seattle 115 at Houston 112
May 12: Sun., Seattle 114 at Houston 107
AND
Seattle 64-18 vs. Utah 55-27
Seattle 4, Utah 3
May 18: Sat., Utah 72 at Seattle 102
May 20: Mon., Utah 87 at Seattle 91
May 24: Fri., Seattle 76 at Utah 96
May 26: Sun., Seattle 88 at Utah 86
May 28: Tue., Utah 98 at Seattle 95
May 30: Thu., Seattle 83 at Utah 118
June 2: Sun., Utah 86 at Seattle 90
AND
Chicago 72-10 vs. Seattle 64-18
Chicago 4, Seattle 2
June 5: Wed., Seattle 90 at Chicago 107
June 7: Fri., Seattle 88 at Chicago 92
June 9: Sun., Chicago 108 at Seattle 86
June 12: Wed., Chicago 86 at Seattle 107
June 14: Fri., Chicago 78 at Seattle 89
June 16: Sun., Seattle 75 at Chicago 87
1997
Seattle 57-25 vs. Phoenix 40-42
Seattle 3, Phoenix 2
Apr. 25: Fri., Phoenix 106 at Seattle 101
Apr. 27: Sun., Phoenix 78 at Seattle 122
Apr. 29: Tue., Seattle 103 at Phoenix 110
May 1: Thu., Seattle 122 at Phoenix 115
May 3: Sat., Phoenix 92 at Seattle 116
AND
Seattle 57-25 vs. Houston 57-25
Houston 4, Seattle 3
May 5: Mon., Seattle 102 at Houston 112
May 7: Wed., Seattle 106 at Houston 101
May 9: Fri., Houston 97 at Seattle 93
May 11: Sun., Houston 110 at Seattle 106
May 13: Tue., Seattle 100 at Houston 94
May 15: Thu., Houston 96 at Seattle 99
May 17: Sat., Seattle 91 at Houston 96
1998
Seattle 61-21 vs. Minnesota 45-37
Seattle 3, Minnesota 2
Apr. 24: Fri., Minnesota 83 at Seattle 108
Apr. 26: Sun., Minnesota 98 at Seattle 93
Apr. 28: Tue., Seattle 90 at Minnesota 98
Apr. 30: Thu., Seattle 92 at Minnesota 88
May 2: Sat., Minnesota 84 at Seattle 97
AND
Seattle 61-21 vs. Los Angeles Lakers 61-21
LA Lakers 4, Seattle 1
May 4: Mon., L.A. Lakers 92 at Seattle 106
May 6: Wed., L.A. Lakers 92 at Seattle 68
May 8: Fri., Seattle 103 at L.A. Lakers 119
May 10: Sun., Seattle 100 at L.A. Lakers 112
May 12: Tue., L.A. Lakers 110 at Seattle 95
1999
Indiana 33-17 vs. Milwaukee 28-22
Indiana 3, Milwaukee 0
May 9: Sun., at Indiana 110, Milwaukee 88
May 11: Tue., at Indiana 108, Milwaukee 107
May 13: Thu., Indiana 99, at Milwaukee 91
2000
Indiana 56-26 vs. Milwaukee 42-40
Indiana 3, Milwaukee 2
Apr. 23: Sun., Milwaukee 85 at Indiana 88
Apr. 27: Thu., Milwaukee 104 at Indiana 91
Apr. 29: Sat., Indiana 109 at Milwaukee 96
May 1: Mon., Indiana 87 at Milwaukee 100
May 4: Thu., Milwaukee 95 at Indiana 96
2001
Milwaukee 52-30 vs. Orlando 43-39
Milwaukee 3, Orlando 1
Apr. 22: Sun., Orlando 90 at Milwaukee 103
Apr. 25: Wed., Orlando 96 at Milwaukee 103
Apr. 28: Sat., Milwaukee 116 at Orlando 121
May 1: Tue., Milwaukee 112 at Orlando 104
AND
Milwaukee 52-30 vs. Charlotte 46-36
Milwaukee 4, Charlotte 3
May 6: Sun., Charlotte 92 at Milwaukee 104
May 8: Tue., Charlotte 90 at Milwaukee 91
May 10: Thu., Milwaukee 92 at Charlotte 102
May 13: Sun., Milwaukee 78 at Charlotte 85
May 15: Tue., Charlotte 94 at Milwaukee 86
May 17: Thu., Milwaukee 104 at Charlotte 97
May 20: Sun., Charlotte 95 at Milwaukee 104
AND
Philadelphia 56-26 vs. Milwaukee 52-30
Philadelphia 4, Milwaukee 3
May 22: Tue., Milwaukee 85 at Philadelphia 93
May 24: Thu., Milwaukee 92 at Philadelphia 78
May 26: Sat., Philadelphia 74 at Milwaukee 80
May 28: Mon., Philadelphia 89 at Milwaukee 83
May 30: Wed., Milwaukee 88 at Philadelphia 89
June 1: Fri., Philadelphia 100 at Milwaukee 110
June 3: Sun., Milwaukee 91 at Philadelphia 108
2003
New Jersey 49-33 vs. Milwaukee 42-40
New Jersey 4, Milwaukee 2
Apr. 19: Sat., Milwaukee 96 at New Jersey 109
Apr. 22: Tue., Milwaukee 88 at New Jersey 85
Apr. 24: Thur., New Jersey 103 at Milwaukee 101
Apr. 26: Sat., New Jersey 114 at Milwaukee 119
May 29: Tue., Milwaukee 82 at New Jersey 89
May 1: Thur., New Jersey 113 at Milwaukee 101
2005
San Antonio 59-23 vs. Denver 49-33
San Antonio 4 Denver 1
Game 1 April 24 San Antonio Spurs 87 Denver Nuggets 93
Game 2 April 27 San Antonio Spurs 104 Denver Nuggets 76
Game 3 April 30 Denver Nuggets 78 San Antonio Spurs 86
Game 4 May 2 Denver Nuggets 115 San Antonio Spurs 126
Game 5 May 4 San Antonio Spurs 99 Denver Nuggets 89
2006
Los Angeles Clippers 47-35 vs. Denver 44-38
Los Angeles Clippers 4 Denver 1
Game 1 April 22 Los Angeles Clippers 89 Denver Nuggets 87
Game 2 April 24 Los Angeles Clippers 98 Denver Nuggets 87
Game 3 April 27 Denver Nuggets 94 Los Angeles Clippers 87
Game 4 April 29 Denver Nuggets 86 Los Angeles Clippers 100
Game 5 May 1 Los Angeles Clippers 101 Denver Nuggets 83
2007
San Antonio 58-24 vs. Denver 45-37
San Antonio 4 Denver 1
Game 1 April 22 San Antonio Spurs 89 Denver Nuggets 95
Game 2 April 25 San Antonio Spurs 97 Denver Nuggets 88
Game 3 April 28 Denver Nuggets 91 San Antonio Spurs 96
Game 4 April 30 Denver Nuggets 89 San Antonio Spurs 96
Game 5 May 2 San Antonio Spurs 93 Denver Nuggets 78
Number of series where Karl’s team was favored and Karl’s team won: 8
Number of series where the other team was favored but Karl’s team won: 2
Number of series where Karl’s team was favored but the other team won: 2
Number of series where the other team was favored and the other team won: 12
Finally, let’s take a close look at the four upsets. In 1987, George Karl’s Warriors (42-40) scored a small upset playoff series win over the Utah Jazz (44-38) when they defeated the Jazz in Utah 118-113 in the 5th and deciding game of the series.
Then, in 1992, George Karl’s Supersonics (47-35) scored an upset playoff series win over the Golden State Warriors (55-27) 3 games to 1. Two of the 3 wins, though, were extremely close games, 1-point and 3-point wins.
In 1994, Karl’s most famous playoff failure occurred, in what is regarded by many as the biggest playoff upset/choke in the history of the NBA, though some would rank last year’s Warriors win over the Mavericks as just as or more historic. Karl’s Supersonics (63-19) were defeated by the Dikembe Mutombo and the Denver Nuggets (42-40) 3 games to 2, with the final game of the series being a thrilling and shocking overtime win for the Nuggets in Seattle. The Sonics were the 1st seed of the West, while the Nuggets were the 8th seed.
The next year, in 1995, there was another monumental Karl first round playoff failure, though it is much less famous than the one the prior year. In 1995, the Los Angeles Lakers (48-34) scored a major upset over Karl’s Supersonics (57-25) 3 games to 1. Although the win-loss gap between the two teams in the 1995 upset was less than in the 1994 upset, the Sonics managed to win only 1 game against the underdog Lakers.
In evaluating his record, we can analyze that Karl’s 1992 upset victory offsets his 1995 upset loss. His 1987 upset win, while coaching the Warriors, was just barely an upset, and worth very little weight in this review. So after these dispensations, you are left with that 1994 loss, which is, to repeat, one of the worst and probably the very worst playoff defeat in the history of the NBA. Even if Karl were to win a Championship, or one or two new upset playoff series wins, he would never be able to escape the “coach of the team with the worst playoff series loss in history” tag.
As we will see in Part 6, Karl has a poor win-loss postseason record compared with other current coaches. But this review shows that his poor record is due just as much to his having had a series of marginal teams in the playoffs, especially the Bucks and the Nuggets, as it is due to his actual failures in the playoffs, which could be reduced to that one whopper, losing to the 8th seed Nuggets as Coach of the 1st seed Sonics in 1994.
Overall, and ironically, Karl’s very poor reputation regarding postseason results among avid basketball fans is not entirely supported by the facts. The real truth is that, when you look carefully at Karl’s postseason record, you find that it is only slightly below par not counting the 1994 Nuggets-Sonics shocker. When that is included, his overall playoff record becomes modestly to moderately poor, depending on how much weight you want to put on the 1994 fiasco.
But moderately poor, modestly poor, or even average is just not good enough in professional sports. Whether you consider his record to be modestly poor or moderately poor, it is still not good enough if your objective is to break through to the highest level of the Western Conference, which is the highest level of pro basketball there is in the world. For that huge task, you need an above average in the postseason type of coach.
So although Karl’s postseason record is not as terrible as many including myself have imagined it to be, his record nonetheless reveals that he is almost certainly not the coach you want if you have difficult mountains to climb, but you are determined to climb them, and you have equipped yourself with one the most talented and expensive pro teams in the world with which to make the climb. Quite to the contrary, Karl would be your man if your objective was to tragically waste one of the most talented and expensive pro teams in the world, by not providing it with a Coach who would have all of the skills and abilities needed to perform at a high level in the postseason.
In part 6, you will see that there are a substantial number of coaches right now in the NBA who have shown above average ability in the postseason, so it is anything but impossible or extremely difficult to find and hire such a coach. It is difficult, and requires a huge amount of work, but the payoff for finding the right coach could be a Championship for a team like the Nuggets. Don’t dodge tough jobs if when they are completed a lot of other jobs become a lot easier.
The Nuggets thought they were playing it safe by hiring Karl, who had a good overall record and was already highly experienced at the time he was hired in January 2005. They thought his relatively low opinion of individual players as compared with the great game itself would be a counterweight to the volatile mix of stars they were bringing on to the team. Unfortunately, they overestimated the need for a counterweight to volatile personalities, and they also underestimated Karl’s tendency to penalize rather than teach. As Karl has gotten older, he has become more and more like a 19th century schoolteacher putting any youngster who acts up a little in the corner with a dunce cap. He has become more and more of a disciplinarian and less and less of a motivator and teacher.
The real truth is that the Nuggets’ organization was actually taking a big risk by hiring Karl, because they hired a Coach who has been mediocre at best in the postseason, which is obviously and certainly not appropriate if you have otherwise gone to great expense and great effort to fill out your roster with some extremely talented players, who are simply better than the vast majority of other players in the League. So it was not a safe or a wise choice at all. It was unwise, unsafe, and quite illogical in fact.
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